HDB sellers holding out: 24.5% of resales matched or beat their block's high

Most HDB sellers who hold out for a price above the going rate do not get it. In the 12 months to September 2026, only 24.5% of resales matched or beat the highest price their block had registered for the same flat type in the year before, and the typical pair of near-identical flats sold 2.8% apart 1.

That is the short answer. The longer one depends on how high the target is, what the flat has that its neighbours do not, and which way the market is moving. This guide works through each of those with HDB's own resale records, so a seller can see which targets the records show being reached, and how often.

How far apart do near-identical flats actually sell?

Start with the narrowest test the official data allows. HDB's resale records give the block, street, flat type, storey range, floor area, flat model and the month a resale was registered 1. Sightlines matched every pair of resales in the 12 months to September 2026 that shared all six of the first of those, and that were registered within three months of each other 1. These are as close to twin flats as the public records get: same building, same layout, same size, same band of floors, same season.

There were 2,418 such pairs 1. Here is how far apart their prices were, measured as the higher price against the lower one.

Source: HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg 1; Sightlines analysis. All flat types includes the smaller and rarer types not listed separately.

For a four-room flat at the island-wide median resale price of $630,000 over the same 12 months, a gap of 2.5% is about $15,750 1. That is the typical distance between two flats a buyer would struggle to tell apart on paper.

The spread is not zero, and the reasons are mostly ones the records cannot see: renovation, facing, noise, the exact floor within the band, and how motivated each party was. HDB's own note on the dataset says resale prices should be taken as indicative only, because the prices agreed between buyers and sellers depend on many factors 1. The useful point for a seller is the scale. Even with everything the records can hold constant, three in four four-room twins sold within 5% of each other 1.

How often does a flat beat its own block's best price?

A common way to set a target is to look up the best recent price in the block and ask for that, or a little more. The records allow that target to be tested directly.

For each resale registered from October 2025 to September 2026, Sightlines took the highest price registered for the same flat type in the same block in the 12 months before it, wherever the block had at least two such resales in those 12 months 1. That covered 13,759 resales 1.

Source: HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg 1; Sightlines analysis.

So roughly three sellers in four sold below the best price their block had seen in the past year 1. The typical four-room resale came in about 4.0% under that high, and almost exactly at the block's median for the year before, at 0.998 times 1.

That makes sense once the mechanism is named. The highest price in a block over a year is, by definition, the one sale that went best. It may have been the highest floor, the best renovation or the most eager buyer. A target pegged to it is a bet that this flat is the best one too.

Does holding out work better when prices are rising?

Yes, and by a wide margin. The same block-high test, run for every 12-month period back to 2018, moves closely with HDB's Resale Price Index, which tracks the overall price movement of the public resale market 23.

Sources: HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg 1; HDB Resale Price Index, data.gov.sg 2 and HDB's index table 3; Sightlines analysis. The last index change runs to the third-quarter 2026 flash estimate 3.

In the year to September 2022, when the index rose 11.6%, half of all tested resales matched or beat their block's previous high 12. In the year to September 2026, with the index down 0.6% from 203.7 in the third quarter of 2025 to a flash estimate of 202.4 in the third quarter of 2026, the share fell back to 24.5%, close to the 22.8% of the flat year to September 2019 123.

The lesson travels well beyond this year. In a rising market, a seller who holds out is mostly being carried by the market: the block's old high is simply out of date. In a flat market, the old high is a real ceiling, and beating it needs something specific about the flat. HDB's index table shows the index flat or slightly lower in each of the four quarters to the third quarter of 2026, with quarterly changes between 0.0% and -0.3% 3.

What gets a flat a real premium over its neighbours?

The block test mixes floors and sizes. A tighter test compares each resale with its close comparables: flats of the same type, on the same street, with the same lease commencement year and the same storey range, registered in the six months before it 1. Sightlines ran that for every resale in the 12 months to September 2026 with at least three such comparables, which covered 4,796 resales 1.

Source: HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg 1; Sightlines analysis. Comparables: same flat type, street, lease commencement year and storey range, registered in the six months before the sale, at least three of them.

Two things stand out. First, the spread runs both ways. For four-room flats, 11.8% of resales sold at least 5% above their comparables, and 15.7% sold at least 5% below 1. Second, a large part of the upside is size, not bargaining. Among four-room resales that beat their comparables by 5% or more, 50.8% had a larger floor area than the comparables' median, against 19.4% of all four-room resales tested 1. Where the flat was exactly the comparables' median size, which was true of 1,576 four-room resales, only 7.2% beat them by 5% or more and 0.6% by 10% or more 1.

Put plainly: a four-room flat that is the same size as its neighbours has, in the past year, almost never sold 10% above them 1. About half of the four-room premiums of 5% or more that do show up in the records belong to flats that are measurably bigger 1. The records cannot show the renovations, views and corner layouts that may account for some of the rest.

A worked example: a four-room flat at the median

Take a household selling a four-room flat whose close comparables point to the island-wide four-room median of $630,000 1. Here is what the past year's records say about three targets.

Source: HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg 1; Sightlines analysis. Prices are $630,000 times 1.05 and 1.10 1.

The middle half of four-room resales sold at between 0.968 and 1.025 times their comparables, which on a $630,000 flat is about $609,840 to $645,750 1. That band is where half of four-room sellers ended up. A target 5% above the going rate was reached by 11.8% of four-room sales, and 10% above by 3.5%, or about one in 29 1.

There is an important blind spot. The records show only flats that sold. A seller who asked well above the going rate and never found a buyer does not appear anywhere in the records 1, so the odds of a high target working may be lower than these shares suggest.

What does holding out cost while you wait?

Time is the main cost, and HDB's resale rules shape how it is spent. Once a seller grants an Option to Purchase, the option period is 21 calendar days, and during it the seller cannot sell the flat, grant another option or make an offer to other buyers 4. The option fee is not more than $1,000 and the total deposit not more than $5,000 4. In practice, accepting a buyer means stopping the search for a better one for three weeks.

The buyer's side matters too. A buyer paying with CPF savings or a housing loan must submit a Request for Value, and the Value HDB determines forms the basis for the buyer's CPF usage and the reference for the housing loan amount 4. That Value stays valid for three months 4. So for a financing buyer, the Value, not the agreed price, is the basis for how much CPF and the reference for how much loan can go into the purchase 4.

A rising market can pay for waiting; a flat one does not. With the index down 0.6% over the year to the third quarter of 2026, the index gives no sign that the market was carrying resale prices higher in that period 23. Any extra time spent holding out was a bet on finding a buyer who valued this particular flat more than the last one.

Does the same logic hold for condo sellers?

The same question can be asked of condos. URA's private transaction records give the price and area of each sale by project, so the spread of resale prices within one development can be read directly 5.

Source: URA Data Service, private residential transactions 5; Sightlines analysis. Contract dated October 2025 to September 2026; resales only, landed homes and bulk purchases excluded.

Within the two busiest resale projects in the Outside Central Region over the past year, the top of the middle band sat 7.3% and 15.2% above the bottom on a psf basis 5. Across the whole region the same measure was 33.3% 5. These are spreads across a whole project, not between twin units, so they are not directly comparable with the HDB pairs above. The quantum band is far wider than the psf band: at Treasure at Tampines the top of the middle band of prices sat 72.3% above the bottom, against 7.3% on psf 5. Price per square foot is the fairer guide to what a comparable unit fetched. A resale here is a unit resold after the project's completion, quantum is the total price paid, and psf is that price divided by the area URA records, converted to square feet 5.

Who this does not apply to

The records answer the question for the typical flat. Several sellers sit outside it.

• Flats with few comparables. The tests above count only resales whose block or street had at least two or three recent comparable sales 1. A seller in a block with few recent resales has less evidence on either side.
• Flats unlike their neighbours. Among four-room resales that beat their comparables by 5% or more, 50.8% were larger than the comparables' median 1. A flat that differs from its neighbours in size, layout or model is less well described by the averages here.
• A turning market. The year-by-year table shows how fast the odds change when the index moves 12. A seller reading this table should check the latest quarter's index first.
• Sellers who need to sell by a date. Anyone buying their next home with a fixed timeline has less room to wait, because the next purchase has its own deadlines.

What would change the answer?

The decision rule that falls out of the records is simple. Set the target from the twin range, not from the block's best sale. For a four-room flat that is like its neighbours, the middle half of outcomes ran from about 3% below to about 2.5% above the going rate in the past year 1. A target inside that band has been reached often; a target 5% or more above the going rate has been reached by 11.8% of four-room sales, and about half of those were bigger flats 1.

Three things would change that answer. A rising index, as in 2021 and 2022, lifts the share of sales that beat old highs from about a quarter to about a half 12. A flat that is measurably better, larger in floor area or with features buyers can see, earns a premium the records do record 1. And a seller with no deadline can afford to test a higher price, because the cost of waiting is time rather than money.

The counter-case is real. Holding out does sometimes work: 5.4% of tested resales in the past year beat their block's 12-month high by 5% or more 1. But those are the exceptions the records can see, not the rule. Doing nothing, staying put until the market or the flat itself supports a higher price, is also a valid answer for a household under no pressure to move.

This is general information, not financial advice. Check the current rules with IRAS, HDB, CPF Board or your bank before you commit.