HDB resale index down 0.6% in a year as private prices rise 3.4%: Q3 flash

Singapore's two housing markets moved apart again in the third quarter of 2026. URA's flash estimate shows private home prices up 1.4% in the quarter 1. HDB's flash estimate shows resale flat prices down 0.2%, a third straight quarterly fall 3. Over the past year, private prices are up about 3.4% while the HDB resale index is down about 0.6% 134.

For a household weighing an upgrade from a flat to a condo, that gap is the number that matters. It is also the number most easily misread, because the registered sales tell a different story from the headline index. This piece sets out what the two official releases say, then tests them against the official resale records.

What changed in the third quarter

URA released its flash estimate of the private residential property price index on 1 October 2026 1. The overall index rose 1.4% from the previous quarter, after a 0.5% increase in the second quarter 1. The index stood at 222.5 against 219.4 a quarter earlier, on a base of 100 in the first quarter of 2009 2.

The rise was led by landed homes, up 2.8% after 2.5% in the previous quarter 1. Non-landed prices rose 0.9%, after a 0.1% fall 1. Within non-landed homes, the regions moved in different directions 1:

• Outside Central Region (OCR), the suburbs: up 2.2%, after a 0.1% fall 1.
• Rest of Central Region (RCR), the city fringe: up 0.2%, after a 1.2% fall 1.
• Core Central Region (CCR), the prime districts: down 0.1%, after a 1.8% rise 1.

Private sale volume fell by about 30% from the second quarter, to 4,296 transactions up to mid-September, against 6,148 in the second quarter 1. For the year to date, volume was 15,857, against 19,793 in the same period of 2025 1.

HDB's flash estimate put its resale price index at 202.4 in the third quarter, down 0.2% from 202.8 3. That follows a 0.1% fall in the first quarter and a 0.3% fall in the second 3. CNA reported that HDB described resale volumes as broadly stable, with 7,528 resale transactions recorded in the quarter as of 29 September 7.

Both releases are flash estimates. URA's is compiled from prices submitted for stamp duty and developers' sales up to mid-September, and URA says flash estimates may differ from actual changes and should be read with caution 1. The full figures follow on 23 October 2026 1.

How wide is the gap between private and HDB prices now?

Both indices use the first quarter of 2009 as 100, so their levels can be read side by side 234. The table below sets out the last nine quarters from the official series.

Sources: URA private residential property price index, data.gov.sg 4, and URA flash estimate 2; HDB resale price index 3. Base: 1Q2009 = 100.

The same official series, broken down, show how unevenly the year has gone.

Sources: URA flash estimate Annex A 2; URA indices on data.gov.sg 46; HDB resale price index 3; Sightlines analysis.

Three readings follow from those rows.

First, the HDB index peaked at 203.7 in the third quarter of 2025, the highest level in the HDB series, which starts in 1990 3. It has since slipped by about 0.6% 3. That is a pause after a long climb, not a slump: the index is still about 4.9% above the 192.9 it stood at two years ago 3.

Second, the private index rose in every quarter shown in the table 42. The flash reading of 222.5 is the highest in URA's quarterly series, which starts in 1975 24. Over the past year it is up about 3.4%, and over the first nine months of 2026 about 2.8% 24.

Third, the gap between the two has widened in both directions at once. A year ago, the private index was about 5.6% above the HDB index in level terms 34. Today it is about 9.9% above it 234. This is a comparison of two indices on the same base year, not of two prices, so it shows how far each market has moved since 2009, not what any given flat or condo costs.

Who is affected, and who is not

Upgraders selling a flat to buy private. This group meets the gap head on. A flat sold today has, by the index, fetched slightly less than it would have a year ago, while the private home it is traded for has, by the index, risen about 3.4% 234. The mix matters, though: OCR non-landed prices rose about 5.4% over the year, RCR prices about 0.5%, and CCR prices fell about 1.3% 26. An upgrader eyeing a suburban condo has faced the steepest rise, and one eyeing the city fringe a far smaller one.

First-time buyers of a resale flat. Three soft quarters give a buyer a little more room than in 2024, when the index rose between 1.8% and 2.7% each quarter 3. A 0.6% dip over a year is still small against those gains 3.

Owners who are not moving. A flat owner who is not selling has no realised gain or loss from either index. The index matters to them mostly as context for a future decision.

Private owners who want to buy a resale flat. Private property owners and former owners buying a non-subsidised resale flat without an HDB housing loan no longer face the 15-month wait-out, which was removed on 28 July 2026 in a joint statement by MND and HDB, as Mothership and CNA reported (rule as at 1 October 2026) 78. CNA reported HDB as saying that, since then, neither resale prices nor the number of flats bought by this group had risen significantly 7. The change covers only non-subsidised resale flats bought without an HDB housing loan 8.

Who this does not touch. HDB's index is built from resale transactions only 3. Buyers of new flats from HDB's sales exercises are not buying at the prices it measures.

What the registered resales show

HDB's index is calculated from resale transactions registered across towns, flat types and models 3. The registered resale records on data.gov.sg give the raw counts behind it 5. Sightlines grouped the records registered in July to September 2026 and compared them with April to June 2026 and with July to September 2025 5.

Source: HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg, downloaded 1 October 2026 5; Sightlines analysis.

The dataset count of 7,417 for July to September differs from the 7,528 that CNA reported HDB had recorded as of 29 September 57. This piece uses the dataset for its breakdowns because it lists every flat type. The direction is the same: registrations rose by about 19.9% from the second quarter and about 6.9% from a year earlier 5.

The median resale price rose about 1.3%, from $630,000 to $638,000 5. The median psf fell about 1.0%, from $604 to $598 5. Both moves are consistent with the index falling, once the mix is taken into account.

Why the median rose while the index fell

The answer is in which flats changed hands. Registrations rose across flat types, but they rose fastest among the largest flats 5.

Source: HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg 5; Sightlines analysis.

Executive and five-room flats grew fastest, and they are the two most expensive of the main flat types 5. When more large flats sell, the median price of all resales rises even if no single flat is worth more. An index built across flat types and models is meant to look through that kind of shift 3.

Like for like, prices per square foot were flat to slightly lower in every main flat type. Three-room flats went from a median $594 psf in the second quarter to $582, four-room flats from $619 to $609, five-room flats from $580 to $578, and executive flats from $588 to $586 5. In quantum, the median three-room flat went from $440,000 to $435,000 and the median four-room flat from $630,000 to $628,000 5.

The share of five-room, executive and multi-generation flats in all registrations was 31.5% in July, 29.7% in August and 34.4% in September 2026, against 28.6% to 29.6% in each month of the second quarter 5. The larger share came in the quarter in which the wait-out was removed for private owners buying a non-subsidised resale flat without an HDB housing loan 578. It is tempting to link the two, but the records do not show who bought each flat, and a resale is registered some time after the deal is struck, so the data cannot prove the link. CNA reported that HDB itself saw no significant increase in purchases by private owners 7.

The rule worth keeping is simple. When the median HDB resale price and the HDB resale price index disagree, look at the mix of flat types before deciding which one is right. The index usually is, for the question "are flats getting more expensive?". The median answers a different question: "what did the typical flat sold this quarter cost?".

What the gap means for an upgrade budget

The index gap translates into a budget gap only roughly, because no household sells the index or buys it. But the direction is clear.

Take a household whose five-room flat would have sold for the Q3 2025 median of $740,000 5. At the Q3 2026 median of $740,944, the sale price is essentially unchanged 5. If the private home they want has moved with the private index over the same year, a $1.5m condo a year ago would now be about $1.55m (1.5m x 222.5 / 215.1) 24. The upgrade gap would have widened by about $50,000 with no change in the flat's value 245.

That arithmetic is an illustration from index movements, not a valuation, and it carries two caveats. A single project can move very differently from the index. And the OCR, where many upgraders look, rose faster than the overall index, while the CCR fell 26.

Does the HDB dip suggest waiting? The records do not say. Three quarters of small falls follow a run in which the index rose in every quarter from the second quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2025, then held flat in the fourth 3. The last time the index fell in three or more straight quarters was from the third quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019, four quarters in a row, before it turned up again 3. Past patterns do not decide the next quarter, and a decision to buy or wait depends on a household's own timeline more than on one flash estimate.

What URA said about supply

URA's release also restated the supply position. The Government Land Sales Confirmed List for the second half of 2026 will launch 4,745 private homes, bringing the full-year Confirmed List to 9,320 units, more than 50% above the annual average of the past 10 years 1. URA put the private housing supply expected to complete over the next few years, including executive condominiums, at around 60,600 units 1.

URA also said the macroeconomic outlook remains highly uncertain, including for interest rates, and urged households to be prudent with property purchases and home loans 1.

What to watch next

• 23 October 2026. URA releases its full third-quarter statistics, which will confirm or revise the 1.4% flash estimate 1. HDB's full third-quarter resale figures follow its own schedule; until then, the 0.2% fall is also a flash figure 3.
• Whether large-flat demand holds. If the share of five-room and executive flats in registrations stays above 30% into the fourth quarter, the median price may keep rising even with a flat index 5.
• Whether the OCR keeps leading. A 2.2% quarterly rise in suburban non-landed prices is the largest of the three regions this quarter 1. A second quarter like it would widen the gap for upgraders further; a reversal would narrow it.

Flash estimates are early readings and could be revised. A household should judge an upgrade on the actual sale price of its own flat and the actual price of the home it wants, with the index only as background.

This is general information, not financial advice. Check the current rules with IRAS, HDB, CPF Board or your bank before you commit.